Tuesday, 28 August 2012

Trading Around Old Tops: Money Management Techniques

The Nasdaq 100 Index trades at the 2791.50 level -- old highs set in March. What do we do at old references? and How do we position ourselves?




The short answer is perhaps to do nothing.

If you're looking to get long the market, you may be smart to wait. If you're looking to exit longs it may be prudent to reduce position size at these levels (depending on your entry), and if you're looking to get short, you may again choose to do nothing yet.

Before I address the answer to the above question in its entirety, we need to backtrack a few days: I noted the system signal 'short' last post and potential for short term directional rotation 'down' - derived purely from the system signal logic. I've been stopped out of this trade (trade 28), for a small loss yesterday overnight. I took the trade despite my 'intuitive' sense that the market may not have been quite ready for rotation. My purpose as a trader is to not make subjective directional judgement calls on the market, and so to implement a systematic layer that can facilitate/support decision-making, but to blend that logic with an objective discretionary analysis. I noted the importance of certain time-boundaries, monthly channel high at 2753, that continued to act as a support for price and that without a violation of this level, the short-side could be problematic, if not volatile short term. We also have to objectively look at where we are in 'trading-time' as it relates to 'inflection' points in the market, and that this last week of August may infact be too early to tell how the market may develop going into September.

WD Gann mentions in his writings the importance of 'trading time' and directional movements or trends and where important rotations may be developing in time. His research filters over 50 yrs of data tracking 'swing' durations and high probability 'monthly' pivots as well as the importance 'holiday-weekends' as potential catalysts for directional change or acceleration in trend. My point here is that the timing of this latest signal may have been to early to go short as September approaches and more importantly, the Labour-Day holiday weekend. Sept 4 will set an important tone and forecast for the month of September, likely putting in a strategic high or low for the month. Until then, the market may continue to appear dull.

Lets look at the Nasdaq 100 futures day chart below.

If we have a look at the old top reference at 2791.50 in April, we can see from the 'bar counter' that its been 99 days since the last intermediate rotation down or 5 months since the last inflection high. Intermediate rotations of magnitude tend to follow a rhythm. More importantly, as short term traders we are looking for the coalescing of inputs that may signal a more 'prominent' directional turning point or intermediate inflection. Based on the current macro-market conditions they are still in a holding pattern or bracketing structure defined by the monthly channel (brown-dashed line overlay) on the chart above at 2753-2465. This would imply fading old tops in line with monthly highs unless we get a confirmation that the monthly-macro conditions may be changing to 'trending'. The first indication would be a new monthly closing high in August above 2753 for the Nasdaq 100.