First, let's have a look at the NQ (continuous contract) day chart below. The Index is current finding support on the 'brown-dashed' horizontal line which sits at 2753. This is the most important macro-reference on the chart as it represents the monthly structural highs of the contract. This high was established in May, where May marked the first monthly macro shift in trend to the downside. Back in May, NQ made a lower monthly close (observe the brow-dashed channel trending lower) which signalled the end to the Jan-April run up in the Index. We have currently been in a Down-Sideways Monthly Macro market in the NQ Index. This current macro condition implies that the Index is 'bracketing'. Though, within a monthly sideways structure we can experience some very profitable short term swings, such as the current long trade that was initiated Aug 3.
By referencing the day chart below we can observe that the NQ made an important intermediate term low in June (See the lower brown-dashed horizontal line at 2465 level) defining the monthly channel low and the market has since experienced some sharp movements within the wide monthly channel space (2753-2465). I am closely watching to see whether the Index is going to make a monthly close > 2753 (previous monthly high established in May prior to the market turning down). This would be an important psychological event that would imply that stocks may be poised to move higher through the fall. 2753 is the first intermediate-term reference point that I am using to determine whether the current push to new highs can develop into a sustainable trend or whether the market is really 'bracketing' from the intermediate time-frame implying that we will have renewed weakness.
The next important reference from the chart above is the Weekly channel (the light blue-dashed channel that has enveloped the latest up swing) pivots. The Weekly pivot low sits at 2705.75. This is the intermediate time frame transition point for the index. If the NQ contract corrects from current levels, 2705.75 will be the first structural support price. This price will mark either an important buy point for short term traders if it is re-tested and holds or it would mark a potential turning point 'short' in the intermediate (Weekly) timeframe that would give us shorter term traders the confidence to really press the short side of the market.
For now, I'm watching how the market is going to 'behave' going into the end of the month and what kind of signal it will be sending to traders going into the fall. The 2753 Monthly structural high is the area to watch shorter term. If the index gets rejected from current levels, failing to close > 2753 then the next level to watch is the Weekly pivot low at 2705.