Timing models are pointing to short-intermediate term (weeks-months) rotations out of stocks and into Precious Metals, Bonds.
My studies indicate an important seasonal buy-point in the Bonds starting in April (UST Bonds), going back to 2008. This model looks at the 'abnormal' market (FED driven to infinite liquidity). The day chart below shows the Bonds with recent Buy signal generated Feb 25 (most recent green arrow) -- which is still too early to be buying -- but now entering the seasonal up-cycle (4/12 -- April 12 Timing highlighted in the chart) we're getting closer to establishing long-entry positions. The current bond time structure is lining up as supportive on the Quarterly level (Bullish) with important structural support at 136'12. This is the place to buy if the Bonds discover lower trade into the end of March. Short-term support comes in at the weekly lows = 140'14, monthly lows 142'19. I would like to see the Bonds move into a Weekly Bullish position, taking out the weekly-trend resistance at 144'29. Either Timing or Price and Time will tell. Or Bond-supportive trade will show March monthly close > Monthly Low (142'19) -- this would be implied strength into April.
Gold and Silver are inverse Dollar Trades short-intermediate term, until the market really senses the Bonds are not the place to be due to Sovereign-Debt exacerbation; We're not there yet. That being said, the long precious metal trade carries more risk, however, traders that know how time the swings will capture short term movements. Cycle theory has lined up as per the chart below, reference the green vertical overlay line which represents 17-week intermediate cycle in Gold, implying a tradable short term price low in development. This lined up as of Mar 1 (green vertical line). I would expect the Gold to develop from here establishing an intermediate low with a long trade going into the End-May, Early-June, inline with the 34-Week cycle (red vertical overlay line). Or a possible rally into the 4/19 2013 cycle level, with a acceleration into end-May, Early-June or possible reversal at this time.
So far, Gold and Bonds are lining up cyclically in April (4/12 - Bonds, 4/19 - Gold) as possible inflections (Long).
Lets look at the Weekly chart of Silver, which sits on the precipice of the long term 2008-2013 trend line. I've had a long signal generated in the Silver (March 8/13') which implies possible buyers picking a short term tradable bottom in Silver. Any price-acceptance below the long-term trend line would suggest Silver could bottom out at 21$. I'd be taking a long options, buying some time and betting on price rising intermediate term.
We can look at the USD Index (DX #F) as per the day chart below, and see the Index coming into short term overhead resistance as per Quarterly/Monthly highs, suggesting DX is overbought, and may have to pause, which is supportive to my precious metal long stance short term.
Another way of observing the inverse Dollar/Precious Metals trade short term is through the Gold Stock vs S&P500 ratio spread (Goldcorp (GG) / ES #F) on the weekly level, which gleans a very oversold Goldcorp relative to the US broad stock market (chart lower = very cheap goldcorp relative to S&P500), whereby Goldcorp is as cheap relative to stocks as it was in late 2008.
Through Intermediate-Term Cycles, and relative price inter-asset, along with Systematic signalling and market structure, we can objectively make the case for a rotation back into Gold, Silver, Bonds, and out of Dollars, and Stocks going into the April time period.