Thursday 1 November 2012

Long Trade Alert NQ

The first day of the month is always significant from the perspective of day highs and lows as references that carry forward.  The market is technically oversold here and due for a short-term up swing and/or possible re-balancing going into the election. I've also been watching a lot of leading equities sell off fairly aggressively in the past 3-4 weeks. So, there is some decent risk-reward potential in this long entry, but the market has yet to do anything meaningful.

Looking at today's profile in the NQ looks like a lot of short covering came in today. Meaningful buying may have extended the profile into the afternoon, but that didn't happen, as the market leveled off through afternoon, with some possible long liquidation or new short being put on. The volume today was quite strong, however. Fast counter-trend rallies can be initiated by this type of activity.

The important thing to watch for will be where price trades tomorrow in the Dec contract and whether the market can extend itself above the important weekly high boundary which currently contains price in a Short Weekly trend. Above all, we need to see the market get accepted Friday above today's afternoon pull-back low at 2670. If the price drops below this levels and develops through the day, this may be a sign that contract wants to technically 'double bottom' first, testing weekly low support into next week at 2604 -- this is the strong support level for the contract and it coincides with the Monthly lows at 2600. 

Things to watch tomorrow:
Will price trade above 2670 and if so, can we get a new Weekly closing high > 2695 level. Or do we get a retrace below 2670 - today's pull back - indicating a possible pull back into 2600 support.