Friday 2 November 2012

Short Trade Alert: Trade 36, 2648.50 Entry

We're seeing a noisy, low-confidence market play out going into elections. My initial hunch about yesterday's long signal being driven by short covering, reflected by the late day P-Distribution was infact re-confirmed today as the aggressive short traders in the market overpowered the long side - there is basically no long-term 'long' money/long support in this market  - as per the breakdown into the afternoon and extension of the days profile into the close. Long money is sidelined going into elections.  The market will decide where it wants to go thereafter. As it stands today this market is picking up momentum on the short side and has very little interest/confidence from the long side; albeit, the weather disruptions, unfortunately, also have not been supportive. Not to mention the fact that the market is in an embedded weekly 'short' structural trade - so the long trade yesterday had weaker odds in the context of the intermediate trend being down. One could have waited for the market to close outside and above the weekly highs at 2695 before taking the long trade.




I'm now watching the weekly and monthly lows at 2604 and 2600 for a retest of support. If this breaks, in comes the quarterly lows at 2516. Anything below the 2516 level.....watch out!